The Influence of Wave Cycles on Structural Changes in the Global Development of Natural Disaster Types and Subtypes
https://doi.org/10.26907/2542-064X.2024.3.513-524
Abstract
This article examines the influence of wave cycles on major structural changes in the development of natural disasters worldwide from 1900 to 2023. During this period, natural disasters were most common in the latitudinal band between 30° N and 30° S. The results of the analysis show that structural changes in natural disaster types and subtypes coincide with wave cycles, which are characterized by fluctuations in the frequency of natural hazards. Hence, an overall increase in the number of natural disasters linked to solar activity is associated with a rise in the frequency of climatic, hydrological, and biological hazards, while the frequency of geophysical and meteorological hazards gets lower. Conversely, a decrease in the number of natural disasters, such as that from 2001 to 2023, is accompanied by a reduction in climatic, geophysical, and biological hazards, as well as an increase in the frequency of hydrological hazards, but no changes in the frequency of meteorological hazards.
About the Author
R. V. Knaub
National Research Tomsk State University
Russian Federation
Competing Interests:
Russian Federation
Tomsk, 634050.
Competing Interests:
The author declares no conflicts of interest.
References
1. Arnold V.A. Teoriya katastrof [Catastrophe Theory]. Moscow, Ed. URSS, 2004. 128 p. (In Russian)
2. Myagkov S.M. Geografiya prirodnogo riska [Geography of Natural Risk]. Moscow, Izd. MGU, 1995. 223 p. (In Russian)
3. Shoigu S.K., Vorob’ev Yu.L., Vladimirov V.A. Katastrofy i gosudarstvo [Disasters and the State]. Moscow, Energoatomizdat, 1997. 512 p. (In Russian)
4. Mazur I.I., Ivanov O.P. Opasnye prirodnye protsessy. Vvodnyi kurs [Dangerous Natural Processes. An Introductory Course]. Moscow, ZAO “Izd. “Ekonomika”, 2004. 702 p. (In Russian)
5. Makarova E.A. Natural disasters as a challenge to the global economic system. Upr. Riskom, 2012, no. 3 (63), pp. 53–62. (In Russian)
6. Baida S.E. Prirodnye, tekhnogennye i biologo-sotsial’nye katastrofy: monitoring i zakonomernosti vozniknoveniya [Natural, Technological, and Biosocial Disasters: Monitoring and Patterns of Occurrence]. Moscow, FGBU VNII GOChS (FTs), 2013. 195 p. (In Russian)
7. Akimov V.A., Sokolov Yu.I., Sosunov I.V. Global’nye i natsional’nye prioritety snizheniya riska bedstvii i katastrof [Global and National Priorities for Disaster Risk Reduction]. Moscow, FGBU VNII GOChS (FTs), 2016. 396 p. (In Russian)
8. Oltyan I.Yu., Lyakhovets T.L. Development of terminology and indicators to implement the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015‒2030. Tekhnol. Grazhdanskoi Bezop., 2016, vol. 13. no. 1 (47), pp. 22–26. (In Russian)
9. Ignateva A.V., Knaub R.V. Natural conditions of development of emergency situations in the territory of the Siberian Federal District. Geosphere Res., 2020, no. 1, pp. 66–77. https://doi.org/10.17223/25421379/14/5. (In Russian)
10. Bryant E. Natural Hazards. Cambridge, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2006. 312 p.
11. Nelson B. Natural disasters: A calculated risk. Nature, 2013, vol. 495, no. 7440, pp. 271–273. https://doi.org/10.1038/nj7440-271a.
12. Wu H., Huang M., Tang Q., Kirschbaum D.B., Ward P. Hydrometeorological hazards: Monitoring, forecasting, risk assessment, and socioeconomic responses. Adv. Meteorol., 2016, vol. 2016, art. 2367939. https://doi.org/10.1155/2016/2367939.
13. Karn M., Sharma M. Climate change, natural calamities and the triple burden of disease. Nat. Clim. Changе, 2021, vol. 11, no. 10, pp. 796–797. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01164-w.
14. Liu Y., Zhang, T., Ding Y., Kang A., Lei X., Li J. Exploring the driving factors of compound flood severity in coastal cities: A comprehensive analytical approach. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 2024. Preprint. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-100.
15. Conradi T., Eggli U., Kreft H., Schweiger A.H., Weigelt P., Higgins S.I. Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems. Nat. Ecol. Evol., 2024, vol. 8, no. 5, pp. 888–900. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02333-8.
16. Chizhevsky A.L. Solntse i my [The Sun and Us]. Moscow, Znanie, 1963. 48 p. (In Russian)
17. Chizhevsky A.L. Zemlya v ob”yatiyakh Solntsa [The Earth in the Embrace of the Sun]. Moscow, Eksmo, 2004. 928 p. (In Russian)
18. McCormac B.M, Seliga T.A. (Eds.) Solnechno-zemnye svyazi, pogoda i klimat [Solar-Terrestrial Influences on Weather and Climate]. Moscow, Mir, 1982. 384 p. (In Russian)
19. Mel’nikov V.P., Konstantinovskaya L.V. Kosmoplanetarnaya bezopasnost’ chelovechestva (Kosmogonicheskii aspekt) [Cosmoplanetary Security of Humanity (A Cosmogonic Perspective)]. Moscow, ООО “Buki Vedi”, 2014. 430 p. (In Russian)
20. Grigoryev A.A., Kondratyev K.Ya. Ekodinamika i geopolitika [Ecodynamics and Geopolicy]. Vol. II: Environmental Disasters. St. Petersburg, 2001. 688 p. (In Russian)
21. Petrov N.V. The basics of the electromagnetic nature of the Solar System. The third part. Comets and their role in the Solar System. Noos. O-vo. Chel., 2017, no. 4. (In Russian)
22. Petrov N.V. Trudnye podvigi Solntsa [the Brave Feats of the Sun]. St. Petersburg, IPK “Beresta”, 2018. 308 p. (In Russian)
23. Stozhkov Y.I. The role of cosmic ray in the atmospheric processes. J. Phys. G: Nucl. Part. Phys., 2003, vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 913–923. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0954-3899/29/5/312.
24. Christian H.J., Blakeslee R.J., Boccippio D.J., Boeck W.L., Buechler D.E., Driscoll K.T., Goodman S.J., Hall J.M., Koshak W.J., Mach D.M., Stewart M.F. Global frequency and distribution of lightning as observed from space by the optical transient detector. J. Geophys. Res., 2003, vol. 108, no. D1, pp. ACL 4-1–ACL 4-15. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002347.
25. Ermakov V.I., Stozhkov Yu.I. Fizika grozovykh oblakov [Physics of Storm Clouds]. Preprint 2. Moscow, FIAN RF, 2004. 39 p. (In Russian)
26. Yakovets Yu.V. Tsikly. Krizisy. Prognozy [Cycles. Crises. Forecasts]. Moscow, Nauka, 1999. 448 p. (In Russian)
27. Baida S.E. Wave cycles of natural, technological, and social disasters. Tekhnol. Grazhdanskoi Bezop., 2019, vol. 16, no. 4 (62), pp. 30‒36. (In Russian)
28. EM-DAT: The Emergency Events Database – Université catholique de Louvain (UCL) – CRED. URL: http://www.emdat.be.
29. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. URL: http://www.cred.be.
30. Online tool for creating a custom world or subdivision map. URL: https://www.mapchart.net/.
Review
For citations:
Knaub R.V. The Influence of Wave Cycles on Structural Changes in the Global Development of Natural Disaster Types and Subtypes. Uchenye Zapiski Kazanskogo Universiteta Seriya Estestvennye Nauki. 2024;166(3):513-524. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.26907/2542-064X.2024.3.513-524
Views:
127
Email this article 